Hype Cycle
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Work in Progress - Latest Dec 11, 2019

Abstract

The Technology Hype Cycle - The space between fiction and reality


Hype Cycle

Hype
  • A clever marketing strategy where products are advertized as the thing everyone must have, to the point where people begin to feel they need it.

  • Excessive publicity and commotion.

  • Exaggerated or extravagant claims.

  • Something deliberately misleading.

One aspect of determining the stage of the items of interest found in the info rubble produced daily by the computer and electronic industries, and if they are Duds or Nuggets, is not as easy as what stage they are in the Hype Cycle.

HypeCycle
Figure 1. Hype Cycle Stages

The Hype Cycle helps separating fiction and reality.

Technology Trigger

A potential technology breakthrough happens.

Peak of Inflated Expectations

Early publicity produces a number of success stories and often accompanied by stories of failures. Some companies may take corrective action but most don’t.

Trough of Disillusionment

Interest wanes as experiments and implementations fail to deliver on the hype.

Slope of Enlightenment

Technology consumers begin to understand the technology better and how it may benefit them.

Plateau of Productivity

Mainstream adoption starts to take off.


Also, see Gartner Hype Cycle


Dud or Nugget?

I do not use a fixed criteria for thinking something a dud or a nugget depending on what stage it is in the hype cycle.

The space between fiction and reality is where some duds take shape. I do think technologies that do not make it to market, very short lived ones that do, and those that were just vapor, as duds.

Nuggets are more complex. Some just make sense to me when they are in the Technology Trigger stage of the hype cycle. Some make it to the Plateau of Productivity stage. Others stumble along their way in the hype cycle stages and turn into duds.

Some duds that make it to through the Trough of Disillusionment stage may turn into nuggets on their way to the Plateau of Productivity stage.

Then there are the nuggets that are well into the Plateau of Productivity stage that may be turned into duds by actions of their creators.

I am sure I’ll be updating dud posts that have turned into nuggets, and nugget posts that have turned into duds. Such is the way of things with incredibly fast changing technologies.

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